CAB Q2 Forecasts for Growth and Investment defy uncertainty post Brexit

Justin Ratcliffe, (CAB Chief Executive)

The latest CAB Q2 State of Market Survey (undertaken 4 weeks after the EU Referendum vote) encouragingly highlights that there appears to have been no drop off in overall confidence within the aluminium in building sector. 60% net balance of members expected increasing sales in the next quarter (44% in Q1) and 47% in the year ahead (50% in Q1). These figures were significantly better than the UK construction sector as a whole. Construction Products Association members responded with minus 13% net balance for the following quarter and only 17% for the following year. Crucially there was a significant increase in firms who forecasted capacity utilisation of over 90% in the year ahead from 12% in Q1 to 38% in Q2. On a further positive note, capital investment for Customer research, R & D and E-business was forecasted to be higher over the next 12 months than the previous year.

CAB, like many other Associations, is calling on government to help create stability in the economy and welcomes the recent announcements about an increassed commitment to house building and re-confirmation of a number of infrastructure projects around the UK. However, the house building pledge will be challenging – the UK is behind its target of around 250,000 new homes per annum. Not since 1977 have we reached 300,000 new homes per year!

Since the Referendum result, CAB has confirmed that Professor Noble Francis, Economics Director, Construction Products Association will provide a key presentation on the ‘UK Construction industry following Brexit’ at the CAB Regional Members’ meeting at Mercedes Benz World, Weybridge on 12 October 2016.

With many commentators calling for continued fiscal stimulus we await to see whether in reality there will be ongoing delays in projects which would lead to a lack of visible pipeline for the future. We must recognise though that businesses and households are better funded than in 2008 and most of all must try to avoid talking the market down. We need to wait until the Autumn Statement and further economic forecasts before the bigger picture can be seen but CAB’s Regional Meeting in October will certainly be topical!

For more information on CAB’s Members’ event at Mercedes Benz World on 12 October, contact Justin at justin.ratcliffe@c-a-b.org.uk or ring the CAB office on 01453 828851.

I hope you enjoy this month's issue.

Tony Higgin
Publisher

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