Welcome to the machine
March 2017

Back in the 1970s, the author and biochemist Isaac Asimov wrote: “It seems reasonable to suppose that robotic devices of one sort or another…will replace a large fraction of the workforce”. There have been a number of reports in recent months, albeit some forty years on, that arrive at the same conclusion. A report by Deloitte in 2016 warned that robots could replace a fifth of jobs in administrative roles such as telecoms and IT by 2035, as falling technology costs and rising wages make automation increasingly attractive. Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England, is reported as saying that many of the jobs and industries we are now familiar with “will be gone tomorrow”. His chief economist, Andy Haldane, estimated that nearly half of all British jobs could be performed by robots in the years ahead. While the predictions of economists may not always be 100% accurate, we should note that future graduates are advised by Carney to be “flexible and adventurous”.

Another report, this time by the thinktank Reform, says that by 2030 websites and artificial intelligence “chatbots” could replace up to 90% of Whitehall’s administrators, as well as tens of thousands in the NHS and in GP’s surgeries, saving as much as £4bn a year. It goes further, stating that machines will outperform humans at some diagnoses and routine surgical procedures. As a result, public services should become more flexible and embrace the gig economy, with workers supporting themselves through a variety of jobs acquired through “Uber-like” online platforms. Apparently, it is not just repetitive and highly structured roles that are at risk: a new generation of increasingly creative robots could replace accountants and salespeople.

What about in the construction sector? Will windows be installed by robots any time soon? While the current generation of robots may excel at repetitive and structured jobs, will artificial intelligence create a new generation of robots that can learn sufficiently to deal with something as variable as installing a window? While it is hard to see such a development in the future, it would be foolish to rule it out in my opinion. However, Asimov also asked whether ultimately human beings would become obsolete, and replaced by the computer. The Industrial Revolution brought machines to take the weight of hard labour from the backs of human beings, but muscles have not disappeared. Similarly Asimov, famous for his “Three Laws of Robotics”, predicted that it will not be a case of computers becoming superior to the human brain, rather it is a matter of complementation, with humans and computers forming a cooperative intelligence. So perhaps the future is one where robotic exoskeletons will allow a construction worker to do the physical work of several men, with vast knowledge and information banks at their fingertips to guide them through every possible situation. Of course, there is no chance that trade associations will ever be replaced by computers, at least not in my lifetime…